Analysts discuss the possible problems for U.S. strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Filed under: Afghanistan

In March of 2009, the U.S. redefined its strategy in Southeast Asia by combining the conflicts in Afghanistan and Pakistan into “one existential threat.” Essentially, U.S. and NATO forces engaged in the region now deal with the insurgency in Afghanistan alongside the militancy in Pakistan.

In tonight’s PRISM segment, we look at whether the AfPak strategy has proved to be more effective than looking at the countries separately.

Hadley GambleCNN Abu Dhabi

Filed under: General

The "father of Lebanon" was brutally murdered five years ago on Sunday. More than 1,000 kilograms of explosives ripped through Rafik Hariri's motorcade as it passed Beirut's sunny seaside.

Since the explosion that claimed the life of the former prime minister, there has been one major war with Israel, an internal conflict, protests, riots and thousands of opposition members sitting in the city's central square.

It has been hectic to say the least since the man so many regarded as a true "nationalist" was assassinated. One month after his death, millions took to the streets, naming a party and changing politics in Lebanon forever. They recently swept Hezbollah in national elections, shocking many, including most observers.

But all of it has, in the end, led to a calm within Lebanon that the region has not seen for years.

Saad Hariri, who in his younger years was considered more than a playboy than stately, has been exactly that - a statesmen. During the recent plane crash off the coast, he was one of the first to arrive at the airport, consoling families for hours.

He blamed Syria totally for his father's early death, and yet he visited the country - a move seen by many as a benchmark in the relationship between the two countries. French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been center-stage in thawing the relationship between Syria and the world for more than a year now.

On his second visit to Damascus, he snuck away with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to have dinner in the old city. The two are said by close aids to get along very well.

The American delegation trying to maintain some calm in the region has been led by former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell, and while he has visited Beirut a few times, so has the head of Hamas: Khaled Meshaal. Meshaal also recently had a meeting with the head of Hezbollah, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah.

According to Israel: that's two of the world's biggest terrorists sitting in one room.

Hariri, who is proving slowly to be exactly what his father was trying to be, a nationalist pragmatist, has given Hezbollah the room they need to arm. The government's mission statement reforms the Shia militia group's right as "the resistance." Critics say it allows Hezbollah to have weapons, while advocates say it allows them to have them in a "defensive" purpose.

The simple fact is both sides have violated the UN resolution that ended the 2006 war. Hezbollah is re-arming and Israel is flying over southern Lebanon. Neither side is taking great care to hide it. Israel shows the pictures of its flights to the world as evidence that Hezbollah is re-arming; something the resolution forbids it from doing.

The question then remains Israel. In recent weeks, the Israeli government has been stutter-stepping while rattling the Lebanese cage with words of war.

Israel's Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has been the most outspoken, saying at an Israeli university, "Whoever thinks territorial concessions will disconnect Syria from the axis of evil is mistaken.... We must make Syria recognize that just as it relinquished its dream of a greater Syria that controls Lebanon."

According to Lebanon minister Yossi Peled, "We are heading toward a new confrontation in the north, but I don't know when it will happen, just as we did not know when the second Lebanon war would erupt," across Israel on Army radio.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has been accusing Hezbollah of re-arming, but has also been walking his government back from the stringent talk of confrontation saying Israel seeks "peace with its neighbors."

War in Lebanon is discussed everyday on almost every street corner. Everyone has an opinion and most are shared openly. But predicting a war with Israel is a fool's errand. No one saw the war in 2006, and no one will see the next one - if there is one.

For five years, everything in Lebanon has been about affiliation and not necessarily race or religion - some of the things that have separated Lebanon in the past ... but politics. Which party are you a supporter of? Whose flag do you carry to rallies? It's partly why people were shooting each other in the streets during May 2008. Every year, rallies like the one this year been about a political movement.

Maybe the dream of a father's son will be realized and this year, it will be about Lebanon.

Cal Perry
CNN Beirut

Filed under: General

Britain's anti-terror strategy aims to make suicide bombers fear failure and dishonor. CNN's Paula Newton reports.

Filed under: General

Relatives of a Hamas activist killed in Dubai believe Israel was responsible. CNN's Paula Hancocks reports.

Filed under: General

Dalai Lama, Taiwan, Google strain U.S.-China ties

(Analysis)

By Jaime FlorCruz, CNN

BEIJING, China (CNN) - Challenge China's position on Taiwan and WATCH China go ballistic.

When the United States last week announced plans to sell advanced weapons to Taiwan, China fired back with vitriolic anger. It's a "crude interference in China's domestic affairs," protested He Yafei, vice minister of foreign affairs. It could "lead to repercussions that neither side wishes to see," he said. The same day, China suspended plans for military exchanges and threatened sanctions on American companies involved in the arms sales.

China's angry response comes as no surprise. "The Chinese take this seriously," said Jim McGregor, senior adviser at APCO, a U.S. consulting company. "We're in a political season in China. People are jockeying for positions for a change in leadership a few years down the road, so I guess it makes the Taiwan issue even more sensitive."

China considers Taiwan as a mere renegade province. Beijing said it seeks Taiwan's "peaceful reunification" with the mainland, but it has also hinted readiness to resort to military means if Taiwan declares independence. Beijing considers Taiwan a "core interest" issue that is non-negotiable.

Washington said it plans to sell a package of weapons that include Black Hawk helicopters, anti-missile missiles, mine-hunting ships and a command and control enhancement system. Estimated price tag: $6.4 billion. Under the Taiwan Relations Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in 1979, Washington is obligated to help Taiwan, its longtime ally, to defend itself. The State Department said the latest round of sales is a way to guarantee security and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Some America-watchers believe the arms sale is ill-conceived.

"It comes at a point when you have the best mainland-Taiwan relations, with opening of direct transport links across the Strait, and the two sides working for a possible peace treaty. There is no hostility, no threat from Beijing to use force and no Taiwanese eagerness to provoke the mainland. This is not a wise choice in terms of strategy," said Wenran Jiang, a political science professor at University of Alberta IN CANADA.

Other analysts warn it may just backfire. Victor Gao, director of Center for China and Globalization, a Chinese think tank, says: "If the United States think the Taiwan issue is just a Taiwan issue, that it can do whatever it wants regarding Taiwan without triggering backlashes from China, it's dead wrong."

In recent months, China and the U.S. have been at loggerheads over a slew of prickly issues: the U.S. trade deficit with China; U.S. pressure to revalue China's currency; and U.S. criticism of China's human rights record, its ethnic and religious policies in Tibet and Xinjiang. In recent weeks, Washington and Beijing have traded sharp words over China's internet policy after the search engine company Google threatened to pull out of China, citing problems of censorship and hacking attacks.

In the coming months, President Barack Obama is expected to meet the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader when he visits Washington. The Nobel Peace prize laureate said he advocates genuine autonomy for Tibetans, not Tibet independence. Beijing regards him as not just a religious figure but a dangerous "separatist," a politician who wishes to sever Tibet from China.

When asked how China would react to such a meeting, Zhu Weiqun, a senior Communist Party leader in charge of ethnic and religious affairs, warned of serious damage. "It will seriously undermine the Sino-U.S. political relations," he said. "We will take corresponding action to make relevant countries see their mistakes."

Such seemingly unrelated events feed into China's paranoia, analysts say. "Beijing will connect the dots of recent events," said Wenran Jiang, THE University of Alberta PROFESSOR. "The U.S. government criticisms on internet freedom in China and now the arms sale to Taiwan – [China] will use these events as proof that the Obama administration is now pursuing a hard-line strategy against China. So Beijing feels it must respond with much stronger measures."

It's not clear how else Beijing will match its bark with bite. Its threat to impose unprecedented sanctions on American companies could hurt the business of aerospace giants like Boeing. That will send a bad signal to the American business community in China, WHICH IS already complaining about creeping Chinese protectionism at ITS expense.

"It's a tough business climate here right now," said APCO's McGregor, who once served as chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China. "This is just one of a number of things that are troublesome." China also is now the biggest holder of U.S. treasury debt. "China may also consider buying less U.S. treasury bonds, which will make the U.S. economic recovery much more painful," Gao said.

The souring of relations comes only three months after Obama visited China during which the two sides issued a joint statement that signaled cordial and steady ties. Some political analysts AT that time spoke of "G2," wondering if much of the global issues will now have to be discussed and solved by the two big economic powers. "There was too much of a hype about sea change in Sino-American relations," says Peking University professor Zha Daojiong. "There was never a G2 to speak of. Sino-American relations are going to be shaped by the same sort of issues that have troubled the two governments in the past."

But Beijing's retaliation could hurt more by inaction. As a rising power and a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council, the U.S. needs China's acquiescence, if not cooperation, to help resolve intractable global issues: the financial crisis, terrorism, cross-border crimes, climate change, and North Korea and Iran. In the U.S. standoff with Iran, for example, Washington has been leading a move to impose additional U.N. sanctions on Iran over its nuclear activities. China, which relies on Iran for supply of oil and natural gas, has typically resisted sanctions, saying they are counterproductive. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last week met her Chinese counterpart in Paris to lobby FOR China's crucial support for that. So far, China remains noncommittal.

Filed under: General

Watch Stan Grant's interview with the golf star:

Filed under: Sport

Social networking site Facebook is celebrating its 6th anniversary and business is booming.

Facebook added more than 200 million new users last year, bringing the total number of users to 350 million worldwide. Despite its astronomical growth, the social networking site isn’t without its critics. Corporations continue their uneasy relationship with the site; a recent Sophos report ranks Facebook as the number one security risk to companies, ahead of Twitter and MySpace. Plus, law enforcement officials in the U.S. now say gang members are using Facebook to communicate.

However, last year the site received international attention as users uploaded video and other images of alleged human rights abuses during protests in Iran.

In tonight’s Prism segment, we’ll talk to Social Media Week’s director Toby Daniels, about how much social media matters.

Hadley Gamble
CNN Abu Dhabi

Filed under: General

The world considers its options in stopping Iran from becoming a nuclear power. Paula Hancocks reports.

Filed under: General

As a former resident of Jerusalem, there’s nothing academic about Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program. True or not, in the Israeli corridors of power, mention Iran and you can feel the temperature rising.

It doesn’t help that Iran’s President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has in the past called for the Jewish State to be wiped “off the map.”

In Israel, Iran is no less than an existential threat.

Back in June of 1981, Israel surprised and shocked the world by launching a bold aerial attack against an Iraqi nuclear reactor in Osirak, 18 miles south of Bagdad. Prime Minister Menachem Begin had called it a pre-emptive strike. Iraq – then Israel’s great nemesis – was building a bomb, Begin said.
All the Israeli planes returned safely from that operation.

Could the same type of air operation be done today? CNN’s Jerusalem correspondent Paula Hancocks actually talked to the lead Israeli pilot of that operation, Zeev Raz.

You can see Paula’s report tonight on Prism.
You may be surprised by Zeev’s answer.

Posted by: CNN Abu Dhabi, Tom Fenton
Filed under: Iran •Israel